A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF OIL PRICE ASSESSMENT

Описание

Тип публикации: статья из журнала

Год издания: 2016

Ключевые слова: price of oil, mathematical model, the unique properties of the oil trade, the dominant factor in pricing, supply and demand imbalance, цена на нефть, математическая модель, уникальные товарные свойства нефти, доминирующий фактор ценообразования, дисбаланс предложения и спроса

Аннотация: The article deals with the development of the mathematical model of oil price assessment. The methodological foundation is determined for developing the mathematical model: two axioms stating the unique properties of oil as a commodity. The first one claims that oil is a commodity being determined at auctions and is not related to Показать полностьюits value as a measure of abstract labor invested, the second axiom states that the markdown in oil price will not cause the increase in the demand for it, as the demand is determined only by the economy state of the demander. Among the factors of oil pricing an imbalance of oil supply and demand in the world market is chosen to be the dominant factor. The mathematical model is represented in two models. The first one assumes that for any excess of supply over demand, the price of oil tends to zero, i. e. for a sufficiently large number of auctions it becomes lower than any predefined level. The second theorem states that in the case of the excess of demand over supply oil price tends to infinity (a finite number of sessions exceeds any predefined level) in case of the dominance of imbalance. The most likely forecast resulting from the hypothesis that the developed mathematical model is correct is the trend of the price decrease reaching its extremely low level and a further transition into a long-term period characterized by the price increase trend.

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Издание

Журнал: Вестник Сибирского государственного аэрокосмического университета им. академика М.Ф. Решетнева

Выпуск журнала: Т.17, 1

Номера страниц: 79-83

ISSN журнала: 18169724

Место издания: Красноярск

Издатель: Сибирский государственный аэрокосмический университет имени академика М.Ф. Решетнева

Авторы

  • Safonov K.V. (Reshetnev Siberian State Aerospace University)

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