«Лестница» потепления с середины 20 века

Описание

Перевод названия: A staircase signal in the warming of the mid-20th century

Тип публикации: доклад, тезисы доклада, статья из сборника материалов конференций

Конференция: CITES 2017; Таруса - Звенигород; Таруса - Звенигород

Год издания: 2017

Аннотация: Regime-shift like structures in decadal climate change have been detected in many studies of temperature and related climatic variables by (Yasunaka and Hanawa 2002; Chavez et al. 2003; Lo and Hsu 2010; Reid and Beaugrand, 2012; Jones , 2012; Reid et al., 2016; Jones and Ricketts, 2017). Much attention has been given to a pause in Показать полностьюwarming (hiatus) during 1998-2014 (Tollefson 2014). We recently suggested and applied a simple method to adjust HadCRUT4 surface temperature anomalies for ENSO effects (Belolipetsky et al. 2015; Bartsev et al. 2016; Bartsev et al. 2017). After this adjustment for major ENSO and volcanic effects the hiatus is even more pronounced. Moreover, we observed similar quasi-stable periods during 1950-1987 and 1988-1997 and almost all the warming occurred during the ~1987 and ~1997 shifts. It should be mentioned that a similar shift has likely occurred in 2015-2016, but this issue is outside the scope of this short paper. Here we want to demonstrate the reality of the staircase pattern using different measurements and climate parameters. We analyzed several global datasets: HadCRUT v4.5 - land and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies; ICOADS v2.5 - SST anomalies measured from ships; NCEP OI v2 - SST measured by satellite instruments; UAH MSU v5.6 and RSS MSUv3.3 - two satellite datasets measuring temperature of the lower troposphere (TLT). The ENSO signal was removed by empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis, and gave similar results for all datasets. A similar staircase behavior was found in global NCEP/NCAR reanalyses of 300mb meridional wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in northern and southern midlatitudes. These many different sources confirm the reality of the regime-shift staircase structure of recent warming, which is masked by short-term ENSO variability and the effects of volcanic eruptions. The warming amplitude of the analysed datasets has not changed significantly after the adjustment, but the shape changed considerably. Adjusted for ENSO temperature dynamics the considered datasets have a striking staircase form: linear trends for three quasi-stable periods 1950-1987, 1988-1997 and 1998-2014 are near zero and nearly all warming occurred during the two shifts of 1987/1988 and 1997/1998 (Fig. 1a, b, c and d). a b с d Fig. 1. Staircase consisting of regimes and shifts in various climate parameters: a) adjusted for ENSO and volcanoes yearly global surface temperature anomalies (HadCRUT4) at 1950-2014 years; b) adjusted for ENSO monthly SST anomalies (ICOADS) at 1950-2016 years and aerosol optical depth (reflecting influence of major volcanic eruptions); c) The same as ‘b' for satellite based SST measurements (NCEP OI v2) at 1983-2016 years; d) The same as 'b' for databases of satellite measurements of lower troposphere temperature (UAH MSU v6.0 and RSS MSU v3.3) at 1980-2016 years.

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Издание

Журнал: CITES 2017

Номера страниц: 86-90

Издатель: Томский центр научно-технической информации

Авторы

  • Белолипецкий П.В. (Федеральный исследовательский центр "Красноярский научный центр Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук)
  • Барцев С.И. (Федеральный исследовательский центр "Красноярский научный центр Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук)
  • Салтыков М.Ю. (Федеральный исследовательский центр "Красноярский научный центр Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук)
  • Дегерменджи А.Г. (Федеральный исследовательский центр "Красноярский научный центр Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук)
  • Белолипецкий В.М. (Федеральный исследовательский центр "Красноярский научный центр Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук)
  • Иванова Ю.Д. (Федеральный исследовательский центр "Красноярский научный центр Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук)
  • Почекутов А.А. (Федеральный исследовательский центр "Красноярский научный центр Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук)

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