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Wind Damage and Temperature Effect on Tree Mortality Caused by Ips typographus L.: Phase Transition Model

Описание

Тип публикации: статья из журнала

Год издания: 2022

Идентификатор DOI: 10.3390/f13020180

Ключевые слова: autoregressive distributed lag model, bark beetle, czech republic, long-term, short-term, slovakia, tree mortality

Аннотация: The aim of this study was to develop methods for constructing a simple model describing tree mortality caused by Ips typographus L. using a minimum number of variables. We developed a model for areas spanning natural mountain forests in the Tatra National Park (Slovakia) and the Šumava National Park (Czech Republic), and in managedПоказать полностьюCzech forests located in four areas varying in environmental conditions. The model describes the time series of tree mortality dynamics caused by I. typographus using two submodels: a long-term dynamics submodel, and a short-term dynamics autoregressive distributed lag(ADL) model incorporating a two year delay and temperature variable averaged over the April-May period. The quality of fit for our models (R2 value) ranged from 0.87 to 0.91. The model was formulated to capture the average monthly temperature effect, a key weather factor. We found that for high-elevation stands located at least 1000 ma.s.l., forest damage was predominantly influenced by May temperatures. For lower-elevation managed forests with warmer climates, the weather effect was insignificant. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

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Издание

Журнал: Forests

Выпуск журнала: Vol. 13, Is. 2

Номера страниц: 180

ISSN журнала: 19994907

Издатель: MDPI

Персоны

  • Soukhovolsky V. (V. N. Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Akademgorodok 50/28, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation)
  • Kovalev A. (Krasnoyarsk Scientific Center SB RAS, Akademgorodok 50, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation)
  • Tarasova O. (Laboratory of Ecosystems Biogeochemistry, Institute of Ecology and Geography, Siberian Federal University, Av. Svobodny 79, Krasnoyarsk, 660041, Russian Federation)
  • Modlinger R. (ETM, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Kamýcká 129, Prague, 12900, Czech Republic)
  • Křenová Z. (Global Change Research Centre AS CR, Bělidla 4a, Brno, 60200, Czech Republic, Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Benátská 2, Prague, 12900, Czech Republic)
  • Mezei P. (Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Štúrova 2, Zvolen, 96053, Slovakia, W. A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59801, United States)
  • Škvarenina J. (Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, Zvolen, 96001, Slovakia)
  • Rožnovský J. (Institut Celoživotního Vzdělávání, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, 61300, Czech Republic, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Branch Office Brno, Brno, 61667, Czech Republic)
  • Korolyova N. (ETM, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Kamýcká 129, Prague, 12900, Czech Republic)
  • Majdák A. (Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Štúrova 2, Zvolen, 96053, Slovakia)
  • Jakuš R. (ETM, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Kamýcká 129, Prague, 12900, Czech Republic, Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Štúrova 2, Zvolen, 96053, Slovakia)

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