Тип публикации: доклад, тезисы доклада, статья из сборника материалов конференций
Конференция: 11th Computer Science On-line Conference "Artificial Intelligence Trends in Systems"; Zlin; Zlin
Год издания: 2022
Ключевые слова: investments, discount factor, valuation models, modern Russian economy, inflation, risk premium, normal profit, efficiency
Аннотация: The paper examines the methodological foundations for evaluating investment projects. The approaches to the assessment take into account the features of the modern Russian economy. The boundaries of the use of various discount factors for evaluating business projects are analyzed. The most effective method for calculating the discoПоказать полностьюunt factor for investment projects in Russia is substantiated. The authors draw conclusions based on the accumulated experience of analyzing business projects in the Russian economy over the past five years. The open data of the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange are also used to calculate the discount factor by various methods. When analyzing the methods for calculating the discount factor, the W. Sharp method, the Fama and French method, the weighted average cost of capital method, the method of summing the inflation rate, normal profit and risk premium were used. The study revealed that the most acceptable method for the Russian economy is the method that takes into account the level of inflation, normal profit and risk premium. The authors present risk premium ranges for the Russian economy based on analyzed business projects over the past five years. The rationale for choosing the method for calculating the discount factor is due to the fact that other methods are more focused on the stock market, while in Russia the connection between the real sector and the stock market is not so obvious. The stock market is not as developed and does not affect the economy as it does abroad. Therefore, not all foreign models for estimating the discount factor can be adapted to the Russian economy. The conclusions are confirmed by calculations. The discount factor calculated using methods based on stock market indicators is too small and does not even cover the level of inflation in Russia. This casts doubt on the possibility of using it to evaluate investment projects in Russia. In Russia, inflation is growing due to the increase in production costs. The calculation of business project performance indicators should be adapted to such processes. Based on this, it is advisable not to discount investment flows at the comparison rate, but, on the contrary, to increase, that is, increase taking into account price increases.
Журнал: Artificial Intelligence Trends in Systems
Выпуск журнала: 502-2
Номера страниц: 259-269
Место издания: Switzerland