Тип публикации: статья из журнала
Год издания: 2023
Идентификатор DOI: 10.3390/math11194212
Аннотация: <jats:p>Three models of abundance dynamics for forest insects that depict the development of outbreak populations were analyzed. We studied populations of the Siberian silkmoth Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv. in Siberia and the Far East of Russia, as well as a population of the pine looper Bupalus piniarius L. in Thuringia, Germany.Показать полностьюThe first model (autoregression) characterizes the mechanism where current population density is dependent on population densities in previous k years. The second model considers an outbreak as analogous to a first-order phase transition in physical systems and characterizes the outbreak as a transition through a potential barrier from a low-density state to a high-density state. The third model treats an outbreak as an effect of stochastic resonance influenced by a cyclical factor such as solar activity and the “noise” of weather parameters. The discussion focuses on the prediction effectiveness of abundance dynamics and outbreak development for each model.</jats:p>
Журнал: Mathematics
Выпуск журнала: Т. 11, № 19
Номера страниц: 4212
ISSN журнала: 22277390
Место издания: Basel
Издатель: MDPI