Тип публикации: статья из журнала
Год издания: 2013
Идентификатор DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2013.01.008
Ключевые слова: Baikal rift system, Bifurcation, Coupled large earthquakes, Hysteresis, Nonlinear geodynamics, Nonlinear oscillator with dissipation, Phase portrait, earthquake prediction, geodynamics, rifting, seismicity, tectonophysics, Baikal Rift Zone, Russian Federation
Аннотация: The current lithospheric geodynamics and tectonophysics in the Baikal rift are discussed in terms of a nonlinear oscillator with dissipation. The nonlinear oscillator model is applicable to the area because stress change shows up as quasi-periodic inharmonic oscillations at rifting attractor structures (RAS). The model is consistenПоказать полностьюt with the space-time patterns of regional seismicity in which coupled large earthquakes, proximal in time but distant in space, may be a response to bifurcations in nonlinear resonance hysteresis in a system of three oscillators corresponding to the rifting attractors. The space-time distribution of coupled MLH 5.5 events has been stable for the period of instrumental seismicity, with the largest events occurring in pairs, one shortly after another, on two ends of the rift system and with couples of smaller events in the central part of the rift. The event couples appear as peaks of earthquake 'migration' rate with an approximately decadal periodicity. Thus the energy accumulated at RAS is released in coupled large events by the mechanism of nonlinear oscillators with dissipation. The new knowledge, with special focus on space-time rifting attractors and bifurcations in a system of nonlinear resonance hysteresis, may be of theoretical and practical value for earthquake prediction issues. Extrapolation of the results into the nearest future indicates the probability of such a bifurcation in the region, i.e.; there is growing risk of a pending M ? 7 coupled event to happen within a few years.© 2013, China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Журнал: Geoscience Frontiers
Выпуск журнала: Vol. 4, Is. 6
Номера страниц: 709-716