Using multivariate statistics to solve risk assessment problems for forest ecosystems

Описание

Тип публикации: доклад, тезисы доклада, статья из сборника материалов конференций

Конференция: International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference: Water Resources, Forest, Marine and Ocean Ecosystems, SGEM 2020

Год издания: 2020

Идентификатор DOI: 10.5593/sgem2020/3.1/s14.100

Ключевые слова: forest ecosystem, risk assessment, social-natural-technogenic system

Аннотация: Different natural and man-made hazards lead to the loss of millions of hectares of forest every year; sustainable forest management, which will decrease or prevent loss, is vitally important for our planet’s health. Sustainable forest management in the Russian Federation implies the effective multi-purpose use of forest resources, Показать полностьюwhich involves implementing preventive and reforestation measures. However, the forest extends over vast territories, which complicates the work of determining the state of the system as a whole and, specifically, for individual areas. To best manage forest ecosystems, we should use a risk-based approach to correctly evaluate many factors and their influence probability, but the necessary methodology is currently lacking. This work uses multidimensional statistics methods that allow us to divide Krasnoyarsk Territory into groups of clusters with similar characteristics. For each region within this Territory, the risk of permissible impacts is calculated according to the proposed formula, and interval groups of risks are determined for cluster groups. The proposed method allows us to determine the intervals of risk values for each group of clusters. For a more detailed study of each cluster, it is necessary to expand and clarify the list of factors considered, as well as determine the most significant indicators that affect the forest ecosystem. Risk assessment was carried out according to two indicators: forest fires and forest pathology; however, this formula can be modified to take into account the introduction of new variables, for example, anthropogenic impact (deforestation area) or climate change. © 2020 International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference. All rights reserved.

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Издание

Журнал: International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference Surveying Geology and Mining Ecology Management, SGEM

Выпуск журнала: Vol. 2020-August, Is. 3.1

Номера страниц: 777-784

ISSN журнала: 13142704

Издатель: International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference

Персоны

  • Taseiko O. (Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation, Krasnoyarsk Branch of the Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation)
  • Ivanova U. (Krasnoyarsk Branch of the Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation)
  • Rihter E. (Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation)
  • Pitt A. (Federal Research Center, Krasnoyarsk Science Center of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation)

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