Siberia and the Russian Far East in the 21st Century: Scenarios of the Future : научное издание

Описание

Перевод названия: Сибирь и Дальний Восток в XXI в.: сценарные варианты будущего

Тип публикации: статья из журнала

Год издания: 2017

Идентификатор DOI: 10.17516/1997-1370-0165

Ключевые слова: Siberia, Russian Far East, economic development, scenarios, global trends, сибирь, дальний Восток, экономическое развитие, сценарии, глобальные тренды

Аннотация: The article presents a study of variants of possible future for Siberia and Russian Far East up until 2050. The authors consider the global trends that are likely to determine the situation of Russia and the Siberian macro-region in the long term. It is shown that the demand for natural resources of Siberia and Russian Far East wilПоказать полностьюl be determined by the economic development of Asian countries, the processes of urbanization and the growth of urban “middle class”.When determining possible scenarios, the authors use a method of conceptual scenario planning that was developed under the framework of foresight technology. Three groups of scenario factors became the basis for determining scenarios: external constant conditions, external variable factors, internal variable factors. Combinations of scenario factors set the field for the possible variants of the future of Siberia and Russian East. The article describes four key scenarios: “Broad international cooperation”, “Exclusive partnership”, “Optimization of the country”, “Retention of territory”. For each of them the authors provide “the image of the future” (including the main features of international cooperation, economic and social development), as well as the quantitative estimation of population and GDP dynamics:“Broad international cooperation” - the population of Russia will increase by 15.7 % from 146.5 million in 2015 to 169.5 million in 2050; Russia's GDP will grow by 3.4 times - from 3.8 trillion dollars (PPP) in 2015 to 12.8 trillion dollars in 2050.“Exclusive partnership” - the population of Russia will increase by 8.1 % from 146.5 million in 2015 to 158.4 million in 2050; Russia's GDP will grow by 2.7 times from 3.8 trillion dollars (PPP) in 2015 to10.1 trillion dollars in 2050.“Country optimization” - the population of Russia will decrease by 0.1 % from 146.5 million in 2015 to 146.4 million in 2050; Russia's GDP will grow by 2.0 times from 3.8 trillion dollars (PPP) in 2015 totrillion dollars in 2050.“Territory retention” - the population of Russia will decrease by 11.9 % from 146.5 million in 2015 to 129.1 million; Russia's GDP will grow by 1.6 times from 3.8 trillion dollars (PPP) in 2015 to 6.0 trillion dollars in 2050.

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Издание

Журнал: Журнал Сибирского федерального университета. Серия: Гуманитарные науки

Выпуск журнала: Т. 10, 11

Номера страниц: 1669-1686

ISSN журнала: 19971370

Место издания: Красноярск

Издатель: Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования Сибирский федеральный университет

Авторы

  • Efimov Valerii S. (Siberian Federal University)
  • Laptevа Alla V. (Siberian Federal University)

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